The Final Countdown: How Márquez vs Aprilia Could Unfold Over Six Remaining Weekends

Six Grands Prix remain in the 2026 MotoGP season. Two points separate Jorge Martín and Marc Márquez, while Marco Bezzecchi trails Márquez by 47 points – far enough to be an outsider, but close enough to complicate the fight. Races in Indonesia, Australia, Malaysia, Qatar, Portugal, and Valencia are still to come, and the next six weekends could look very different. 

Bezzecchi may no longer be the favourite to win the title, but he could still have a major say in who does. Both he and Martín are riding Aprilias, giving the manufacturer two riders capable of taking points from Márquez, while the latter has less support on the Ducati side after Francesco Bagnaia’s loss of momentum. The run-in is therefore a three-way chess match. 

Last year’s results are an imperfect guide. Márquez won the 2025 title after an extraordinary comeback, but his season ended prematurely when he suffered a severe arm fracture in a collision with Bezzecchi at Indonesia’s Mandalika. He missed almost all the remaining rounds – Australia, Malaysia, Portugal, and Valencia – leaving no direct benchmark for the current leader at most circuits.

Martín’s 2025 form is just as difficult to consider. The then-reigning 2024 champion spent much of last season dealing with crashes and injuries and eventually finished 21st. Comparing that version of Jorge with the rider fighting for the 2026 title would be misleading.

That leaves six very different weekends to analyse. Aprilia appears to have the advantage at several, Ducati has a particularly strong recent record at Qatar, and the final two rounds could become decisive if the championship remains close. Previous results can give us clues, but they cannot provide the whole answer.

Six weekends, 222 points

Two points between Jorge and Marc is almost nothing in MotoGP. There are 222 points still available over the six remaining weekends, with each Sprint offering up to 12 points and each Grand Prix another 25. A rider can take 37 points from a single weekend – more than enough to turn the championship upside down.

Ducati team manager Davide Tardozzi and Márquez have already made it clear that Aprilia would be attacked. So far, the attack has worked: Márquez has almost erased the gap to Martín, while Bezzecchi has fallen further behind.

KTM’s Pedro Acosta is another rider who was previously considered a title contender, although his 90-point deficit now makes the task considerably harder. The points lost after his Austrian Sprint crash proved costly, even though he went on to win the Grand Prix that same weekend for the first time in his MotoGP career. Acosta will not disappear from the story after 2026, though, as he is set to join Márquez at Ducati next season.

For now, the focus is on six circuits and three riders.

Mandalika: can Aprilia strike first?

Márquez arrives in Indonesia in a much better physical condition than he was in 2025. The circuit, however, may not be the ideal place to sustain his attempt to take control of the championship.

Bezzecchi was on pole at Mandalika last year and won the Sprint after a comeback that culminated in a last-lap overtake on Fermín Aldeguer. Márquez finished sixth after serving a Long Lap penalty, while a separate penalty for Luca Marini dropped the Honda rider down the classification and promoted Márquez by one position.

Then came Sunday. Márquez and Bezzecchi collided, forcing both to retire and leaving their long-run pace at Mandalika something of an unanswered question. Martín did not participate.

This time, the picture should be very different. Bezzecchi knows how strong Aprilia can be here, while Martín is now back on a competitive bike and fighting for the championship.

The forecast may therefore favour Bezzecchi and give Martín an opportunity to counterattack. For Márquez, a podium could be a perfectly acceptable result if it means limiting the damage.

Phillip Island: Bezzecchi’s first big opportunity

Phillip Island looks much more promising for Bezzecchi. He won the Sprint there in 2025 and finished third in the race despite two Long Lap penalties following his crash with Márquez in Indonesia. Raúl Fernández won the Grand Prix for Aprilia’s satellite team Trackhouse.

Neither Martín nor Márquez raced, which makes the statistics useful, but hardly conclusive. Bezzecchi has already shown that Aprilia can be extremely competitive around Phillip Island, yet we have no direct comparison with either of his title rivals.

All three are likely to be fighting at the front this time. For Martín, the ideal scenario may be simple: two Aprilias ahead of the Ducati. For Bezzecchi, this could be one of his clearest opportunities to take a large chunk out of the championship deficit.

Sepang: a chance for Ducati?

Malaysia could interrupt the run of circuits that appear particularly favourable to Bezzecchi. His 2025 weekend was difficult: sixth in the Sprint and only 11th in the race. Márquez and Martín were absent, so there is no direct benchmark for either of them.

That makes Sepang something of a wildcard. The previous result certainly does not make Malaysia an Aprilia weakness. Bikes improve, setups change, and one poor weekend does not define a circuit forever. But if Ducati can find an advantage here, Márquez will have a valuable opportunity to claw back points before the final stages. For Bezzecchi, a podium would be significant in its own right – it would show that Aprilia has moved forward from last year.

Lusail: Márquez’s territory?

If there is one circuit where the numbers clearly favour Márquez, it is Lusail. In 2025, Márquez won both the Sprint and the race. Bezzecchi finished ninth in both, while Martín was 16th in Saturday’s Sprint after returning from injury and then crashed on Sunday, suffering an even more severe injury.

Judging purely by last season, Márquez is the clear favourite, but that is also precisely why Qatar could become a difficult weekend for Bezzecchi. If Aprilia’s improvements are genuine, Lusail will be one of the clearest tests of how much progress the bike has made.

Bezzecchi risks giving away here what he could gain in Indonesia and Australia. Márquez, meanwhile, could use Qatar to build an advantage heading into the final two rounds.

Portimão: the Aprilia opportunity

Portimão is where the picture swings back towards Bezzecchi. He took pole in 2025, finished third in the Sprint, and then dominated the Grand Prix from start to finish. Márquez and Martín were absent, so once again there is no direct comparison with the two title contenders.

Still, it is difficult to ignore what Bezzecchi achieved there. If Aprilia remains as competitive, Jorge could also become a serious threat. The forecast may favour Aprilia, although Márquez’s presence could completely change the equation compared with last year.

By this point, the championship standings may make Bezzecchi’s role even more interesting. If he arrives in Portugal close enough to the top two, he could genuinely return to the title fight. If the gap remains substantial, he can still influence the outcome by taking points away from either Martín or Márquez.

Valencia: the final move

Then comes Valencia. Bezzecchi was on pole and won the race in 2025, securing a double podium for Aprilia alongside Fernández. Bezzecchi finished fifth in the Sprint. Márquez did not participate, while Martín qualified 22nd and withdrew from the Grand Prix for medical reasons. 

Again, the direct comparison is missing, but the message from last year is obvious: Bezzecchi can be extremely strong at the final round. By then, however, the championship situation could make every position matter. Martín is now on an equally competitive Aprilia, while Márquez will have had five previous opportunities to close the gap. If the title remains undecided heading into Valencia, previous form may become less important than who handles the pressure best.

So, who has the advantage?

Taking 2025 into consideration, Indonesia, Australia, Portugal, and Valencia look like opportunities for Bezzecchi. Qatar is clearly the most favourable of the six for Márquez, while Malaysia could be the most difficult circuit for Aprilia to predict.

Yet, the numbers alone do not tell the whole story. To overcome the 47-point gap, Marco needs to take more than eight points out of the leader every weekend. It is possible, but it requires victories, strong Sprint results, and very few mistakes. 

Acosta faces an even steeper challenge. With 90 points to make up, he would need to gain an average of 15 points on the leader at every remaining weekend. At this stage, that almost certainly requires extraordinary results from Pedro and mistakes from the frontrunners. 

Bezzecchi’s mental state could also become important – he currently looks the least confident of the main contenders after his disastrous first-lap crash at his home race in Misano. He also has considerably less experience of fighting for a MotoGP title than either of his rivals: Martín has already won one championship, while Márquez has spent much of his career collecting them. That experience could matter if the fight remains close all the way to Valencia. Six weekends is a long time in MotoGP, though, and a strong result in Indonesia could change this very quickly.

That is what makes this championship so difficult to predict. At the beginning of the season, Bezzecchi looked like a serious title contender while Márquez was struggling to stay in touch. In early May, Márquez was 100 points behind the leader after his Le Mans injury. Now, he is just two points away from the championship lead.

Six Grands Prix remain. For Martín, it is about defending a lead that has almost disappeared. For Márquez, it is about completing the comeback. And for Bezzecchi, the task is slightly different: stay close enough and let the other two fight while taking points from one another.

The championship is a two-point fight right now – it certainly does not look like one that will stay simple.